When you show someone a fantasy football pre-draft ranking list like mine you quickly find out who your friends are. Some think you’re crazy & want to get you help. Some think your crazy is contagious & want to stop it before it spreads to them. Others will smile & look down to their cell liked I asked them for money on the street…… like my wife.
My first rankings of the year start with the most important position on the field & of little importance in fantasy. Why no importance you ask? Its not because QB’s don’t score, they’ve been scoring more than ever. Rather they all score about the same. Parity is coming to the quarterbacks position this season in a big way.
Last season we saw some outrageous performances. Performances I would classify as outliers or not damn likely to happen again without the perfect circumstances. These are statistical anomalies & as such shouldn’t be counted.
2015 saw the QB with the 14th most completed passes win the FFL points battle. Aaron Rodgers completed 124 less passes then Drew Bress. Rodgers even attempted less passes than almost 50% of the league. What does this mean? It means that Rodgers is as close to god as you can get in a QB. He doesn’t throw that much, but when he does its for mad points. 38 TDs with only 5 oskeys last season. He is not only a great scorer but takes better care of the football than anyone else.
For these reasons I have made Rodgers QB#1. I expect more passing from the Packers this year & if Lacy stays healthy they will end up passing more on 2nd downs thanks to a stacked D-front. A healthy Eddie Lacy should also mean more effective play action passes which are the higher scoring percentage plays. Add in Davante Adams who I expect to become the Pack’s #2 WR this year & Rodgers could have an even better season. (Jordy’s loss will make Adams a stud & help the TE’s numbers.)
While Rodgers #1 is not that surprising. My #2 will make you shit yourself if you’re not ready. Some say whats even more suprising is who isn’t at the #2 spot.
Last year the best QB in the best offense for fantasy points was Carson Palmer. Before his injury Palmer was lighting it up scoring at least 11 points. Mind you this was with an injured WR & RB corp. I have huge expectations for Palmer & his coach Bruce Arians who is a passing offense whore. Carson has spoke about how great he feels & his understanding of the offense is now second nature. My only two fears are his offensive line & tough divisional opponents.
If you’re still reading its probably because you like to watch car accidents & war footage.
My number 3 QB is Andrew Luck. While ranking so high isn’t crazy not having him #1 or #2 has allowed members of my family to get lega Power of Attorney from me. I get it but let me take you a few steps deeper into the rabbit hole to show you my hallucinations. Once there you will see the light.
Luck is the luckiest QB in the world. I haven’t seen someone throw so many near interceptions in my life without becoming a bust. This year the Colts have something they haven’t since Luck was drafted out of Stanford. A great RB who can both block & catch out of the backfield. Nothing against Bradshaw (who had to share time with the Turd Richardson) but even an old Gore is a class or two above Bradshaw. Gore may not bring a stacked box to the Colts but he will sure not allow teams to play 3 downs in Nickel or Dime like many did last year. What this means is more run plays & less passes from Luck.
My next 6 QBs are what I’m calling the new normal or Tier 2. The NFL has become a passing league, we all know this. What we haven’t seen is the QB’s numbers reflect this on a grand scale. Last season we saw the outliers & some teams that should’ve done better if not for injuries. This tier could soon have 17 Qbs in it. I expect higher numbers from the likes of Eli, Ryan, Dalton, Bridgewater, Tannehill & Romo. This tier is so strong I could see anyone of these cats moving into that top echelon.
What may strike people as more shocking than these new names in the top 10 is who isn’t there.
Peyton Manning is no longer a top fantasy QB for a few reasons.
1. He is old as dirt & the last few seasons has seen him lose strength over the season.
2. New coach is run before pass. He also doesn’t use the full quicky passing scheme that Manning implemented to insure he doesn’t take as many hits.
3. The tarot cards say he will suffer an injury that will hinder his season numbers.
The next rank that needs defending is that of Ben Roethlisberger. No longer Big Ben but now Fat Ben, Roethlisberger is a tricky QB to analyze. He can flat sling the ball, without question. The problem is that last season he had two games that are so rare I can’t allow them as a variable. If you don’t remember Ben put up back to back 6 TD games. Those two performances we over 1/3 of his whole season. 71pts of 237pts. If he does this again I will eat my computer. My prediction for the Steelers signal caller is much more pedestrian.
What I want everyone to remember is that QB is no longer your make or break guy. Even in larger 18 team leagues the QB position has become so competitive that you can wait deep into the draft to get a great QB. I’m hoping that the buzz on Palmer stays down as the spirits have told me that this is his MVP season. Keep checking back, as the season gets closer I will announce my sleepers, bust, and final rankings.